15.04.2020 Market Analysis Forex

15.04.2020 Market Analysis Forex As every day, the total number of coronavirus cases that we followed up yesterday reached 2 million. The total number of cases in the U.S. has exceeded 600 thousand and continued to spread quickly with other countries. As of yesterday, 2,154 people died in the USA. The total number of new cases was 22,673 people. The number of new cases in Italy continued with a downward trend with 2,972 people. The number of patients taken to intensive care in Italy continues to decrease day by day. However, the number of people who died was still high with 602 people yesterday. In Spain, the outbreak continues to appear relatively slowed down. In Germany, the situation is still under control. When we look at Turkey 4,062 new cases were announced yesterday. Unfortunately, the number of citizens lost their lives was 107 while the number of tests was 33.070 people. The number of healing citizens reached a very high number such as 842. The positive case rate increased daily compared to yesterday but decreased overall. The mortality rate increased, the rate at which deaths increased did not change. While the recovery rate (7.37%) has increased significantly today, intubation (1.84%) and intensive care rate (3.07%) decreased. Yesterday, the IMF predicted in the "Global Economic Outlook" report that global economic growth will shrink by 3% this year due to the impact of the virus outbreak, previously the institution's expectation was 3.3%. 2021 growth expectations increased from 3.4% to 5.8%. The IMF predicted that Turkey was narrowed to 5% this year. Stating that there have been “dramatic” changes in the world since the last report, the institution stated that there has been an unprecedented crisis. It was emphasized that the virus epidemic in the world also caused destruction in the economy and the loss of production triggered the global financial crisis. It was stated that the Central Banks have taken liquidity and monetary incentive steps to combat the crisis in recent weeks, while these steps have given confidence and contributed to limiting the shock in the markets. It is stated that synchronous steps will open up space for the economies of developing countries. According to the financials announced by the investment bank JPMorgan in the USA, where the first quarter balance sheet season started, the first quarter profit decreased by 69% with the increase in credit costs and fell to the lowest level of more than six years. The company's profit fell to its lowest level since 2013 due to the effects of the coronavirus on the economy. Bank of America Corp.'s profit figures Wednesday, Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Citigroup Inc., and Morgan Stanley will arrive on Thursday. The European Union has increased its annual budget by about 3.5 billion euros to combat the new type of coronavirus. Accordingly, 2.7 billion euros were allocated for operations such as stocking important products to support emergency health services, establishing temporary hospitals and cross-border transport of patients. European Exchanges, on the other hand, closed the day with a mixed course with the effect of discussions about the loosening of the measures taken to combat the new type of coronavirus epidemic, especially in Italy, Spain and Germany. In France, the CAC 40 index increased by 0.38% to 4.523.91 points, while in Germany the DAX 30 index gained 1.25% to 10.696.56 points. In Italy, the FTSE MIB 30 index fell by 0.36% to 17,558.43 points, while in the UK, the FTSE 100 index fell by 0.88% to 5,791.31. According to recent reports, Trump has announced he is cutting the budget awarded to the World Health Organization. China's central bank unexpectedly cut its medium-term borrowing opportunity (MLF) interest rate to 2.95% from 3.15%, the lowest level since September 2017. This morning Asian markets are moving from horizontal to near-horizontal to light-seller while US futures are horizontal. USDTRY In the first trading day of the week, while continuing the flow of relatively weak economic data in the US, payments for the period February 2020 by the Republic of Turkey Central Bank balance was a deficit of 1:23 billion dollars. Turkey Statistical Institute data according to the monthly industrial production index for February to 1.2 percent, increased 7.5 percent annually. Health Minister Fahrettin Koca yesterday, a total of 65 thousand 111 cases in Turkey, announced that the 1403 loss of life. While the destructive effects of coronavirus continue in global markets, it was observed that the exchange continued its upward movement with the developments followed at the end of the day. Today, in the economic calendar, we will follow the budget balance to be announced on the inside and the retail sales data to be announced in the USA. Technically, the dollar remains decisive at 6.82. 6.83, 6.85 and 6.88 levels are important resistance levels that should be followed if the trend in the exchange rate continues to move upward with possible purchases. With possible sales, support levels of 6.80, 6.77 and 6.75 can be followed in the downward movement of the trend in the exchange rate. [mstock id="1597"] EURTRY On the first trading day of the week, the Euro zone's Easter holiday lasted, while the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey issued a deficit of $ 1.23 billion in the balance of payments for the period of February 2020. According to data from the Turkish Statistical Institute, the Industrial Production Index for February rose 1.2 percent monthly and 7.5 percent year-on-year. At the end of the day, global markets were watched as the Cross continued its upward movement, with the devastating effects of the outbreak and the data released. Health Minister Fahrettin Koca, the total case in Turkey 65 thousand 111, 1403 declared that the loss of life. Today in the economic calendar, we will follow the inflation data of France, Spain, and Italy on the European side with the budget balance announced on the domestic side. Technically, the cross remains decisive at 7.48. 7.50, 7.52 and 7.53 levels are important resistance levels to follow in case the upward trend continues as long as 7.46 remains above the support level. Possible sales may be followed by support levels of 7.46, 7.44 and 7.42 in the downward trend of the exchange rate. [mstock id = "1528"] EURUSD On the first trading day of the week, while the Easter holiday was continuing in the Euro Zone, relatively weak data flow prevailed in the USA. On the dollar side, it was followed that the party continued its downward movement at the end of the day, while the Fed's statements of new steps for $ 2.3 trillion in loans and Fed President Powell's statements that the Fed would act effectively to strengthen the US economy continued at the end of the day. Yesterday, import-export price indices were announced on the US side in the weak data flow. Today, the inflation data of France, Spain, and Italy will be announced on the European side. In the USA, we will follow the retail sales to be announced. Technically, it has been observed that the pair continues to be decisive at the 1.0980 level. If it remains below the resistance level of 1.1010, 1.0950, 1.0910 and 1.0880 levels are important support levels to follow. In case of an upward movement of the pair, resistance levels of 1.1010, 1.1040 and 1.1080 can be followed. [mstock id = "1171"] XAUUSD The Ounce tested Gold's $ 1722 level on the first trading day of the week as safe-haven demand in the markets surged, rising to its highest level since December 2012. At the end of the day, it was observed that gold continued its upward movement, along with the risk aversion sentiment in the markets and the developments that followed, seen by sharp declines in the leading stock market indices. Continuing its rise, gold retreated with profit sales that came quite close to its resistance at $ 1750 an ounce. If resistance levels are exceeded in gold, we can see the rise accelerating. Technically, it has been observed that Ounce Gold continues to be decisive at the $ 1725 level. If Ounce Gold continues its upward movement with increasing demand, 1735, 1746 and 1755 levels are the important resistance levels to follow. In case of a possible downward move, 1715, 1706 and 1695 support levels can be followed in the short term. [mstock id = "1177"] GBPUSD On the first trading day of the week, weak data flow continued in the UK, while the Easter holiday lasted, while relatively weak data flow prevailed in the US. On the dollar side, the impact of the Fed's new steps for $ 2.3 trillion in loans and Fed Chairman Powell's statements that the Fed would act effectively to strengthen the U.S. economy was followed by the party's limited upward movement on low trading volume due to the Easter holiday at the end of the day, while the devastating effects of the coronavirus continued. Today we'll follow up on the retail sales data to be announced while on the US side there is a steady stream of data on the UK side. Technically, it was observed that GBP / USD continues to be determinant at 1.2620 level. As long as the upward trend in the parity continues as long as the 1.2550 support level remains above, 1.2660, 1.2740 and 1.2780 are important resistance levels to follow. 1.2550, 1.2500 and 1.2460 support levels should be followed in the downward movement of the potential sales and the downward trend in the parity. [mstock id = "1603"] USDJPY Relatively weak economic data continued to flow in Japan and the United States on the first trading day of the week, while economic data announced last week and fed incentives continued to follow the effects on the dollar. The dollar continued to decline against the yen as risk appetite fell due to coronavirus concerns in global markets during the day. While there is no data to be released in Japan today, we will follow the retail sales data to be released on the US side. Technically, the USD / JPY pair remains stable at 107.00. 106.60, 106.20 and 105.80 levels are important support levels to follow in case the downward trend continues as long as 107.40 is below the resistance level. If the trend in the pair is upward with possible purchases, the resistance levels of 107.40, 107.80 and 108.20 can be followed. [mstock id= " 1527"] CRUDE OIL After a sharp surge early on the third trading day of the week, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and non-OPEC oil producer countries were seen to rise as they turned to whether the historic production cutoff deal would be enough to stabilize the market, which collapsed due to the coronavirus. During the day, US President Donald Trump announced via social networking platform Twitter that the number of production cuts demanded by the OPEC + coalition was 20 million barrels, not 10 million barrels in general, while oil continued to move horizontally. Technically, crude oil remains decisive at $ 20.50. 21.50, 22.70 and 24.00 are important resistance levels that should be followed if the upward trend in crude oil continues with purchases that may occur as long as 19.50 remains above the support level. With possible sales, support levels of 19.50, 18.40 and 17,70 can be followed in the downward movement of the trend. [mstock id= " 1600"] XAGUSD The risk aversion sentiment in the markets, seen by sharp declines in the leading stock market indexes on the first trading day of the week, was followed by the positive trend in US ten-year bond yields despite a shot at safe-haven demand, with silver continuing its horizontal movement at the end of the day. We can see that the rise continues with the increase in the demand for safe assets in silver, which rose slightly from the horizontal movement yesterday. Technically, Silver remains decisive at $ 15.70. 15.90, 16,20 and 16,50 are important resistance levels that should be followed if the upward trend continues with purchases that may come as long as 15.30 remains above the support level. In the downward movement of the trend in silver with possible sales, support levels of 15.30, 15.00 and 14.70 should be followed.