16.04.2020 Market Analysis Forex

16.04.2020 Market Analysis Forex As every day, the total number of coronavirus cases that we followed yesterday approached 2.1 million. The total number of cases in the U.S. has exceeded 640,000 and continued to quickly open up with other countries. As of yesterday, 2,259 people died in the USA. The total number of new cases was 26,299 people. The number of new cases in Italy continued its downward trend with 2,667 people. The number of patients taken to intensive care in Italy continues to decrease day by day. The number of people who died in Italy decreased slightly with 578 people yesterday compared to the previous day. In Spain, the outbreak continues to appear relatively slowed down. In Germany, the situation is still under control, the number of cases tends to decrease. When we look at Turkey 4,281 new cases were announced yesterday. While the number of tests was 34,090 people, unfortunately, the number of citizens who lost their lives was 115. The number of healing citizens has reached a very high number such as 875 and has increased compared to yesterday. Positive case rates have not changed nearly. The mortality rate (2.19%) slightly increased. The rate of increase in cases and deaths has not changed for the last 3 days. The most notable improvement was the dramatic increase in the recovery rate (8.18%). The rate of patients in the intensive care unit continued to decrease with 2.93% and the rate of intubated patients with 1.69%. Although an agreement was reached on OPEC + oil supply limitation the other day, the downward trend started again after the weak reaction in oil prices. While the effect of the economies' halt due to the horn virus outbreak, which continues to have a global effect, has caused a serious decrease in demand, when oil supply is still high, there is no significant upward movement in prices. While oil prices continued their downward trend with the effect of viruses, significant deterioration was observed in the USA with the virus. In March, when the industrial production virus epidemic started in the USA, it fell above the estimates with 5.4% compared to 54% expectation. This result was the worst since 1946. The capacity utilization rate was expected to be 74% while it was 72.7%. Manufacturing industrial production also fell by 6.3%, while a 4.2% decrease is expected. In the US, retail sales fell in March, with the coronavirus outbreak limiting spending. Retail sales fell 8.7% compared to the previous month, according to data from the Ministry of Commerce. The dollar index, which has been in a downward trend for some time, has gained value with the demand for the dollar as investors turned to secure currencies before the first-quarter GDP data expected from China yesterday. "Economic activity contracted sharply and suddenly in all regions of the US as a result of the Covid-19 pandemic," according to the FED Beige Book report released yesterday. In the report, it is stated that there are decreases in the manufacturing industry in most regions, and food and medical equipment producers are faced with strong demand but there are production delays due to the epidemic measures and disruptions in the supply chain. In the USA, indices closed the day with a decline after the impact of the new type of coronavirus outbreak and poor economic data. Dow Jones index fell more than 400 points and decreased by 1.9 percent to 23.506.85 points. The S&P 500 index fell 2.2 percent to 2,783.10 points and the Nasdaq index fell 1.4 percent to 78,393.18 points. This morning, U.S. futures are close to horizontal light sellers, while Asian indexes are still partial sellers. Trump is expected to give a speech today about reopening the U.S. economy, based on his comment that the virus is peaking. USDTRY In the first trading day of the week, while continuing the flow of relatively weak economic data in the US, payments for the period February 2020 by the Republic of Turkey Central Bank balance was a deficit of 1.23 billion dollars. Turkey Statistical Institute data according to the monthly industrial production index for February to 1.2 percent, increased 7.5 percent annually. Health Minister Fahrettin Koca yesterday, a total of 69 thousand 392 cases in Turkey, announced that the 1518 loss of life. While the destructive effects of coronavirus continue in global markets, it was observed that the exchange continued its upward movement with the developments followed at the end of the day. Yesterday, despite the historical declines in industrial production and retail sales data announced by the US, the increase in the exchange rate continues. Technically, the dollar remains decisive at 6.90. 6,925, 6,94 and 6,9650 levels are important resistance levels that should be followed if the trend in the exchange rate continues to move upward with possible purchases. With possible sales, support levels of 6.895, 6.87 and 6.85 can be followed in the downward movement of the trend in the exchange rate. EURTRY On the first trading day of the week, the Euro zone's Easter holiday lasted, while the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey issued a deficit of $ 1.23 billion in the balance of payments for the period of February 2020. According to data from the Turkish Statistical Institute, the Industrial Production Index for February rose 1.2 percent monthly and 7.5 percent year-on-year. Health Minister Fahrettin Koca, total cases in Turkey 69,392, 1518 declared that the loss of life. The January-March budget deficit, announced on the domestic side yesterday in the economic calendar, was 29.6 billion TL, while on the European side, inflation data of France, Spain, and Italy came in line with expectations. While the depreciation in TL continues, we can see the rise in the exchange rate. Technically, it was observed that the cross continued to be decisive at the 7.55 level. If the upward trend continues as long as it remains above the 7.50 support level, the levels of 7.58, 7.60 and 7.62 are important resistance levels to follow. For the possible sales and the downward trend in the exchange rate, the support levels of 7.50, 7.50 and 7.48 can be followed. EURUSD On the first trading day of the week, while the Easter holiday was continuing in the Euro Zone, relatively weak data flow prevailed in the USA. On the dollar side, it was followed that the party continued its downward movement at the end of the day, while the Fed's statements of new steps for $ 2.3 trillion in loans and Fed President Powell's statements that the Fed would act effectively to strengthen the US economy continued at the end of the day. Yesterday, the data on industrial production and retail sales announced by the USA were below expectations. While the biggest decrease in US industrial production since 1946 was 5.4 percent in March, retail sales were 8.7 percent in March. In today's economic calendar, we will follow the US unemployment applications and FED manufacturing index data. Technically, it has been observed that the pair continues to be decisive at the 1.0950 level. If it remains below the 1.097 resistance level, 1.0910, 1.0870 and 1.0840 levels are important support levels to follow. In case of an upward movement of the pair, 1.0970, 1010 and 1.1040 resistance levels can be followed. XAUUSD Ounce Gold, which rose to $ 1748 as of yesterday with the rise that started at $ 1650 in the last trading week, is experiencing a retreat with profit sales. At Ounce Gold, which has increased to its highest level since December 2012, we can see that it continues its upward movement with the risk aversion in markets and the developments that have been followed, with sharp decreases in leading stock market indexes. In Gold, which continues its rise, we can see that the rise accelerates if resistance levels are exceeded. Technically, it was observed that Ounce Gold continued to be decisive at the level of $ 1720. In the event that Ounce Gold continues its upward movement with increasing demand, 1725, 1738 and 1747 levels are the important resistance levels to follow. In case of a possible downward move, 1715, 1708 and 1695 support levels can be followed in the short term. GBPUSD On the first trading day of the week, weak data flow continued in the UK, while the Easter holiday lasted, while relatively weak data flow prevailed in the US. On the side of the dollar, the Fed loans of $ 2.3 trillion and Powell for Fed chairman to take new steps, to ensure effective strengthening of the U.S. economy the Fed will move with the effect of the coronavirus, the devastating effects of the disclosures continue at the end of the day, the Easter holidays were followed by downward movement on the party's limited due to low trading volume. Yesterday we saw historic declines in industrial production and retail sales data released on the US side. In today's economic calendar, we'll follow U.S. unemployment applications and FED Manufacturing Index data. Technically, it was observed that GBP / USD continues to be determinant at 1.2550. As long as the uptrend in the parity continues as long as the 1.2520 support level remains above, 1.2580, 1.2620 and 1.2660 are important resistance levels to follow. 1.2520, 1.2480 and 1.2440 support levels should be followed in the downward movement of the potential sales and the downward trend in the parity. USDJPY The relatively weak economic data flow in Japan and the USA continued on the first trading day of the week, while the economic data announced last week and Fed incentives continued to follow the effects on the Dollar. While the risk appetite decreased in the global markets due to coronavirus concerns during the day, the dollar continued to decline against the yen, while we saw an increase in reaction purchases. We saw historical decreases in the industrial production and retail sales data announced in the USA yesterday on the economic data side. While the biggest decrease in US industrial production since 1946 was 5.4 percent in March, retail sales were 8.7 percent in March. In today's economic calendar, we will keep track of US unemployment claims and FED manufacturing index data. Technically, it was observed that USD / JPY parity continues to be determinant at 107.40 level. If the downward trend continues as long as it remains below the 108.00 resistance level, 107.00, 106.70 and 106.40 levels are important support levels to follow. If the upward trend in the pair is likely to be upward with the possible purchases, resistance levels 107,80, 108,20 and 108,60 can be followed.   CRUDE OIL After a sharp fluctuation in the early hours of the third trading day of the week, it was observed that the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and non-OPEC oil producer countries had increased due to the fact that the historical production cut-off agreement would be sufficient to stabilize the collapsing market due to the coronavirus. During the day, US President Donald Trump noted on the social networking platform Twitter that while the amount of production cuts required by the OPEC + coalition is 20 million barrels in general, it is observed that it continues its downward movement in Petrol. US total crude oil stocks announced yesterday were 503618 thousand barrels with an increase of 19248 thousand barrels. When analyzed technically, it was observed that Crude Oil continued to be decisive at $ 20.00 level. As long as the upward trend in Crude Oil continues, purchases that may come as long as they remain above the 19.50 support level, 20.50, 21.70 and 23.00 are important resistance levels to follow. In the downward movement of the trend with possible sales, support levels of 19.00, 18.40 and 17.70 can be followed.   XAGUSD The risk aversion sentiment in the markets, seen by sharp declines in the leading stock market indexes on the first trading day of the week, was followed by the positive trend in US ten-year bond yields despite a shot at safe-haven demand, with silver continuing its horizontal movement at the end of the day. We can see that the rise continues with the increase in the demand for safe assets in silver, which rose slightly from the horizontal movement yesterday. Technically, Silver remains decisive at $ 15.50. 15.90, 16,20 and 16,50 are important resistance levels that should be followed if the upward trend continues with purchases that may come as long as 15.30 remains above the support level. In the downward movement of the trend in silver with possible sales, support levels of 15.30, 15.00 and 14.70 should be followed.