17.04.2020 Market Analysis Forex

17.04.2020 Market Analysis Forex As every day, the total number of coronavirus cases that we followed yesterday approached 2.2 million. The total number of cases in the U.S. has exceeded 670 thousand and continues to open up quickly with other countries. As of yesterday, 1,796 people died in the USA. The total number of new cases was 25,067 people. The number of new cases in Italy increased slightly with 3,786 people compared to the previous day, but the number of people recovered also increased. In Italy, the number of patients taken to intensive care continues to decrease day by day. The number of people who died in Italy decreased slightly with 578 people yesterday compared to the previous day. In Spain, the outbreak continues to appear relatively slowed down. In Germany, the situation is still under control, the number of cases tends to decrease. When we look at Turkey 4,801 new cases were announced yesterday. While the number of tests was 40,427 people, for the first time, 40 thousand levels were exceeded. Unfortunately, the number of citizens lost their lives was 125. The number of healing citizens has reached a very high number such as 1,415 and has increased considerably compared to yesterday. Although positive case rates fell on a daily basis, it did not change much in total. The mortality rate (2.21%) continued to increase. The rate of increase in cases and deaths has not changed today (Fixed for the last 4 days). Again, the most notable development was the dramatic increase in the recovery rate (9.55%). S&P predicted that the US economy, which was expected to shrink by 1.3 percent previously, will contract by 5.3 percent this year due to the new type of coronavirus epidemic. In the statement made by the establishment, it was noted that within the scope of the measures to combat the epidemic, more than 90% of the population called for "stay home" and the economic activity in the country has stopped. In the statement, which pointed out that the outlook for the country's economy has deteriorated, the US economy, which is expected to shrink by 1.3% according to the estimates made in March, is expected to contract by 5.3% in 2020. It is stated that the recession that will occur is expected to decrease the economic activity by 11.8% and this is almost 3 times the decrease in the economic activity in the 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis period. Applications for unemployment benefits in the US hit by the coronavirus were 5.24 million a week, ending April 11. Thus, in a month when the effects of the coronavirus epidemic began to increase, total applications exceeded 21 million. However, when we look at the last three weeks, there is a decline in the number of applications. Yesterday, the results in the foreign currency deposit accounts were followed yesterday. During the week of April 10, domestic residents' foreign currency deposits increased by USD 0.93 billion compared to the previous week and reached USD 195.08 billion. Real person deposits increased by 0.42 billion USD to 118.76 billion USD; deposits of legal entities increased by 0.52 billion USD to 76.32 billion USD. In addition, the CBRT's total gold and net international currencies increased by 0.72 billion USD in the week of April 10 compared to the previous week and became 59.17 billion USD. Gold increased by 1.57 billion USD to 32.87 billion USD; net international currency decreased by 0.84 billion USD to 26.30 billion USD. Yesterday, the indices turned to sales on the day with negative data, but completed on the positive side, with the expectations that the economy would be operational again. European stock markets, on the other hand, ended the day with a rise, with the effect of countries such as Italy, Spain, and Germany beginning to relax new types of coronavirus measures. This morning, China's first-quarter GDP was slightly better announced than expected, at -9.8%. Retail sales dropped more than expected at 15.8%. Fixed asset investments, on the other hand, contracted by 16.1%. When we look at the pricing this morning, US futures and Asian indices are around 2-3% plus. USDTRY In the early days week while continuing flow of relatively weak economic data in the US, payments for the period February 2020 by the Republic of Turkey Central Bank balance was a deficit of 1:23 billion dollars. Turkey Statistical Institute data according to the monthly industrial production index for February to 1.2 percent, increased 7.5 percent annually. Health Minister Fahrettin Koca yesterday, a total of 74 thousand 193 cases in Turkey, announced that the 1643 loss of life. While the destructive effects of coronavirus continue in global markets, it was observed that the exchange continued its upward movement with the developments followed at the end of the day. Technically, it was observed that the Dollar continued to be decisive at the 6.95 level. If the upward trend in the exchange rate continues with the upward purchases, the 6.965, 6.98 and 7.00 levels are important resistance levels to follow. 6.93, 6.9150 and 6.90 support levels can be followed in the downward movement of the possible sales and the downward trend in the exchange rate. EURTRY In the first trading day of the week in the Eurozone while the Easter holidays, payments for the period February 2020 by the Republic of Turkey Central Bank balance was a deficit of 1.23 billion dollars. Turkey Statistical Institute data according to the monthly industrial production index for February to 1.2 percent, increased 7.5 percent annually. Health Minister Fahrettin Koca, a total of 69 thousand 392 cases in Turkey, announced that the 1518 loss of life. In the economic calendar yesterday, the January-March budget deficit announced on the inside was 29.6 billion TL, while on the European side, inflation data of France, Spain, and Italy came in line with expectations. While the depreciation in TL continues, we can see that the increase in the exchange rate continues. Technically, it was observed that the cross continued to be decisive at the 7.55 level. If the upward trend continues as long as it remains above the support level of 7.50, the levels of 7.58, 7.60 and 7.62 are important resistance levels to follow. For the possible sales and the downward trend in the exchange rate, the support levels of 7.50, 7.50 and 7.48 can be followed EURUSD While the Easter holiday was continuing in the Euro Zone at the beginning of the week, relatively weak data flow prevailed in the USA. On the dollar side, it was followed that the party continued its downward movement at the end of the day, while the Fed's statements of new steps for $ 2.3 trillion in loans and Fed President Powell's statements that the Fed would act effectively to strengthen the US economy continued at the end of the day. Yesterday, on the other hand, German inflation data and Eurozone industrial production data came in line with the expectations, while on the US side, Unemployment Benefits Applications and Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index data were announced. With the Fed Fed Manufacturing Index, which declined above expectations, the withdrawal of the pair was accelerated. When analyzed technically, it was observed that the parity continues to be determinant at 1.0840 level. If the pair continues to remain below this level, 1.0810, 1.0770 and 1.0740 levels are the important support levels to follow. In case of an upward movement of the pair, resistance levels of 1.0870, 1.0910 and 1.0940 can be followed. XAUUSD Ounce Gold, which rose to $ 1748 this week with the rise that started from $ 1650 in the last trading week, is experiencing a retreat with profit sales. At Ounce Gold, which has increased to its highest level since December 2012, we can see that it continues its upward movement with the risk aversion in markets and the developments that have been followed, with sharp decreases in leading stock market indexes. Continuing to rise, Gold has a hard time exceeding resistance levels. In order for Gold to continue its rise, it has to provide persistence over resistance levels. Technically, it was observed that Ounce Gold continued to be decisive at the level of $ 1715. In the event that Ounce Gold continues its upward movement with increasing demand, 1725, 1738 and 1747 levels are the important resistance levels to follow. In case of a possible downward move, 1712, 1707 and 1695 support levels can be followed in the short term. GBPUSD At the beginning of the week, weak data flow continued in the UK, while relatively weak data flow prevailed in the USA. On the dollar side, after the Fed took new steps for $ 2.3 trillion in loans and Fed President Powell announced that the Fed would act effectively to strengthen the US economy, the dollar first retreated on a global basis and continued to gain value. Yesterday, U.S. Unemployment Benefits Applications and Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index data were released. With the Fed Fed Manufacturing Index, which declined above expectations, the withdrawal of the pair was accelerated. Technically, it was observed that GBP / USD continues to be determinant at 1.2450 level. If the uptrend in the parity continues as long as the 1.2380 support level remains above the support level, 1.2480, 1.2520 and 1.2560 are important resistance levels to follow. 1.2380, 1.2350 and 1.2310 support levels should be followed in the downward movement of the potential sales and the downward trend in the parity. USDJPY The relatively weak economic data flow in Japan and the USA continued on the first trading day of the week, while the economic data announced last week and Fed incentives continued to follow the effects on the Dollar. In the first two days of the week, with the decrease in risk appetite due to concerns of coronaviruses in global markets, the dollar continued to decline against the yen, while we saw rises with subsequent reaction purchases. We followed the Unemployment Benefits Applications and Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index data announced by the USA yesterday. Today, we will follow the industrial production data to be announced by Japan. Technically, it was observed that USD / JPY parity continues to be determinant at 107.70 level. If the downward trend continues as long as it remains below the 108.00 resistance level, 107.40, 107.10 and 106.80 levels are important support levels to follow. If the upward trend in the pair is likely to be upward and possible purchases, 108.00, 108.40 and 108.80 resistance levels can be followed. CRUDE OIL Despite the historical production shortage agreement between the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and non-OPEC oil-producing countries, the downward movement in oil continues. This decline was influenced by the US Energy Information Administration's (EIA) announcement that the country's commercial crude oil stocks rose by 19.2 million barrels (4 percent) last week to 503.6 million barrels. Market expectations were that inventories would increase by 11.7 million barrels. According to EIA's April 2020 Short-Term Energy Outlook, the country's average daily crude oil production is expected to be 11.8 million barrels this year. We see that the strengthening of the dollar in the global markets was effective in the drop in oil prices. Technically, it was observed that Crude Oil remained determinant at $ 19.50. 19,50, 19,80 and 20,20 are important resistance levels to follow if the upward trend in Crude Oil continues, as long as the 19.20 support level remains above the support level. In the downward movement of the trend with possible sales, support levels of 19.00, 18.40 and 17.70 can be followed. XAGUSD Silver continued to move sideways at the end of the day, with a positive risk observed in US ten-year bond interest rates, despite the sharp downside in leading stock market indices, as well as the risk aversion in markets, despite the hike in the safe-haven demand. Yesterday, we can see that the uptrend continues with the increase in the demand for secure assets in silver, which started to rise slightly after leaving the horizontal movement. Also, staying above the support levels may support the rise of silver. Technically, it was observed that Gümüş continued to be decisive at $ 15.50. 15,90, 16,20 and 16,50 are important resistance levels to follow if the upward trend continues with the purchases that may come as long as the support level remains above 15.30. 15,30, 15,00 and 14,70 support levels should be followed in the downward movement of the trend in Gümüş with possible sales.