20.02.2020 Bist / Viop Analysis

20.02.2020 Bist / Viop Analysis The expected interest rate decision of the CBRT was announced yesterday. According to the decision of the monetary policy board, the CBRT lowered its policy rate by 50 basis points in line with the general expectation of the market and pulled it from the previous 11.25% to 10.75%. When we examined the text of the meeting, it was striking that there were some changes compared to January. In the first paragraph of the January meeting text, it was stated that the weak course of investments continued, but yesterday the meeting text stated that even though recovery signals in investments and employment were received, the weak course continues. In the first paragraph of yesterday's meeting text, the effects of developments in credit growth and composition on external balance and inflation are not followed up in January text. Its expression is observed to be added. We can interpret the addition of this interpretation as the increase in credit volume as a result of the decrease in loan rates following the successive interest rate cuts, and the increase in the volume of loans as a result of the increase in imports to the economy and the monitoring of the cost inflation situation caused by the increase in the exchange rate. In the second paragraph of the text, it was mentioned that the partial improvement in expectations regarding global trade supported the demand and risk appetite for the developing country's financial assets due to the trade agreement in the January meeting text, whereas in the text yesterday the demand and risk appetite for the developing country's financial assets fluctuated recently. the comment that caused him to watch seems to have been added. In yesterday's meeting, it is also stated in the second paragraph that the possible effects of coronavirus on capital flows, foreign trade, and commodity prices are monitored. In the third paragraph of the text, unlike the previous month, it is observed that the expression “improvement in inflation outlook” and “improvement in inflation expectations in general” is not used. Another point that is noticeable in yesterday's meeting text is that in the text of January, a more moderate reduction in policy interest is used in yesterday's meeting. As a result, when we compare the two meeting texts, it was stated that there were some concerns about inflation in the meeting yesterday, the coronavirus epidemic was mentioned and it was stated that a more moderate policy rate reduction decision was taken. We can say that it can adopt a Central Bank policy stance that will want to see it. In this context, we think that in the coming months, it may take smaller steps or decisions to choose to stay on hold. Speaking at the AKP group meeting about Idlib, another important agenda item other than this development, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan said that the Idlib operation was a matter of time. Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan said: "Turkey has made all kinds of preparations to implement its action plan in Idlib. As in every operation, we say, 'We can come suddenly one night'. Operation Idlib is a matter of time. We will not leave Idlib to the regime that still does not understand our country's determination in this matter and to those who encourage it ”. Speaking about the economy, the President said, "We maintain our determination to reduce inflation and interest rates." On the other hand, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov stated that Moscow did not submit a new request regarding Idlib during the meeting with the Turkish delegation and that there was no final agreement on how to implement the agreements regarding Idlib between the leaders of the two countries. Yesterday, the US stock markets tested new record levels after successive incentive reports and a decrease in the number of newly detected cases in order to prevent China's serious slowdown in coronavirus-induced economic growth. NASDAQ finished the day at 0.87%, Dow Jones at 0.40%, and the SP500 at 0.47%. European markets also finished yesterday in the green. DAX30 finished the day with an increase of 0.79%. Consumer confidence data will be released domestically today. In addition, the European Central Bank meeting minutes will be announced. According to the latest data, the number of people who lost their lives in China due to the coronavirus epidemic increased by 114, yesterday and reached 2,118. The number of new coronavirus cases fell sharply on Wednesday. Only 394 new coronavirus cases were detected yesterday. This was recorded as the lowest number of new cases detected since January 23. BİST100 XU100 index completed the third trading day of the week with a decrease of 0.32% at 119.196, while the banking index decreased by 1.50% on the day of the transaction volume of 11.4 billion TL, while the holding index decreased by 0.81%. The index started the third trading day of the week with a positive outlook in Asian indices. After the central bank's interest rate decision, the index, which faced sales, declined to 118,500 levels during the day. Reaction purchases can be seen in the index, which is out of the uptrend with the decline experienced. The inability of the index to exceed 120,500 and return to the uptrend may increase the selling pressure. If the decline continues, 118.600 and 117.300 support levels will be followed. In the new day, we will follow the Idlib developments inside, consumer confidence and central government debt stock data, and China data set descriptions in the foreign market. We saw that the index, which started the day with rising, faced sales after the news of interest rate cut from the center during the day. The critical trend support index, which closes below the 120,000 level, may try to reach this level during the day. If the decline continues in the index today, 118.500 and 117.300 support levels will be followed. In response purchases, the first target is 119,500. Supports: 118,500 / 117,300 / 116,600 Resistors: 119,500 / 120,500 / 121,500 [mstock id = "1595"] VIOP 30 INDEX FUTURES CONTRACT February futures index 30 contracts completed the third trading day, down 0.17%, to 143,200. The index contract started on the third trading day of the week with a positive outlook in Asian and US futures. Although the contract rose above the 144,000 resistance level, it could not provide a permanence above this level. After the center's interest rate decision, we saw that the contracts, which were on sale, retreated up to 142.250. On the new day, we can see response purchases on the contract for 144,000 resistance levels. Passing this level can speed up the rise. Otherwise, we can see the sales increase. We continue to follow the developments with coronavirus. It is observed that the contract has moved under the rising trend from October last year and the movement continues to remain under this trend. It is observed that the contract has moved under the rising trend from October last year and the movement continues to remain under this trend. February futures index, which started trading with rising yesterday, closed the day with 30 contracts. The contract, which fell below the upward trend after yesterday's drop yesterday, is critical for returning to the 144.400 level uptrend on the new day. As we stay below this level, we can see the increase in sales pressure. Supports: 142,000 / 141,700 / 141,000 Resistors: 144,000 / 144,400 / 145,000 USDTRY FUTURES CONTRACT USDTRY contract with a maturity in February ended the previous trading day at 6.10 with an increase of 0.35%. We saw a withdrawal up to 6.06 levels before the interest rate decision of the center in the February-term Dollar contract, which started the day horizontally. After the announcement of the interest rate decision, the hard rising contract tested above 6.09 and closed the day at 6.10. For the continuation of the rise in the contract in the new day, it is necessary to maintain permanence on 6.10 resistance. The 6.12 and 6.15 levels constitute other resistance levels during the day, while the possible retracements include the 6.0870 and 6.0750 support levels. Syria, along with possible military action statements in Idlib and the geopolitical concerns based on it, may lead to increased price mobility in the coronavirus news flow contract. February futures contract started horizontally on the third trading day of the week. The contract, which tested its support at 6.0550 level during the day, turned its direction upwards after the interest rate decision. It is important for the contract, which closes the day at 6.10, to maintain the rise in the new day, to maintain a permanence above this level. Supports: 6.0870 / 6.0750 / 6.0500 Resistors: 6.1050 / 6.1250 / 6.1500 [mstock id = "1597"] ONS GOLD FUTURES CONTRACT Gold futures contract in February was 1606, up 0.88% on the previous trading day. The continent continued to rise with concerns of increased coronavirus also on the third trading day of the week. The contract, which started the day at 1595, rose to $ 1612 during the day. The contract, which declined with profit sales from this level, closed the day above the critical 1605 support level. It is important to maintain permanence above 1605 for the continuation of the rise in the new day. If you stay above this level, 1612 and 1620 levels can be targeted. In possible retractions, 1595 support will be followed below the 1605 level. The effect of decreasing risk appetite with coronavirus on the price of the contract continues. In the new day, we will watch the coronavirus news closely. The gold contract, which started the third trading day of the week with rising, continued its rise during the day. As the new day contract is over 1605 support level, the bullish movement may continue as long as it is above this level. Pricing below 1605 can also be seen in decreases. Supports: 1605/1595/1587 Resistors: 1608/1612/1620 SHARE NEWS ENJSA: In 2019, consolidated profit increased by 38% on an annual basis and reached 1.03 billion TL. Shares of ALCTL.E, BOSSA.E, ERSU.E, and GSRAY.E will not be subject to short sale and credit transactions from 20/02/2020 (beginning of the session) until 05/03/2020 (end of the session).