20.02.2020 Market Analysis Forex

20.02.2020 Market Analysis Forex USDTRY Over the past few days, especially with the recent interest rate cut decision of the CBRT and the developments in Idlib, the rising Turkish Lira volatility will continue to be higher. Since the new developments on coronavirus, which is the biggest link to these developments, began to contain news that started to show signs of spreading to many countries outside of China, the rise of the exchange rate continued due to the reasons we mentioned earlier. In this context, the currency concerns that have not exceeded 6.16 levels in the last three days and unfortunately, it seems that the upward trend will continue for a while due to the news of the attack on our Turkish soldiers in Idlib yesterday. When analyzed technically, it was observed that the Dollar continued to be permanent over the 6.15 level. In the event that the trend in the exchange rate continues with the upward movement, the 6.23, 6.26 and 6.30 levels are important resistance levels to follow. 6.116, 6.13 and 6.08 support levels can be followed in the downward movement of the potential sales and the downward trend in the exchange rate. [mstock id = "1597"] EURTRY With the upward movement observed in EURUSD for the last 4-5 days and the depreciation in Turkish Lira, we watch that the direction continues to be up in EURTRY. In this context, the cross has been rising rapidly since February 21. The weakness in the dollar plays a role in the appreciation of the parity in response to the pressure on developing currencies and the pricing of interest rate cuts from the FED until the first half of the year. With the news that its government in Germany is planning to suspend public borrowing limits, the Euro found support. When we look at the current developments, the depreciation in the Turkish Lira shows that the EURTRY's direction may continue to be up. Technically, the Cross is still holding at 6.72. As long as 6.75 remains above the support level today, 6.85, 6.92 and 6.97 levels are important resistance levels to follow in order to continue the upward trend. If the trend in the exchange rate is downwards with possible sales, the support levels of 6.72 and 6.69 can be followed if it is below 6.75. [mstock id= " 1528"] EURUSD The depreciation of the dollar due to the pricing of increased interest rate cuts from Fedd until the first half of the year in response to concerns about the economic slowdown caused by the virus being seen in more countries over the past 4-5 days plays a role in the appreciation of the pair. Although the Euro has gained support from the news that the German government is considering suspending public borrowing limits and is approaching the 1.10 level, we do not expect this rise in parity to continue quickly and decisively with the current developments. The rises are likely to continue to give it a selling opportunity for a while longer. Technically, it was observed that the parity continues to be decisive at 1.0890 level and accelerated its rise from yesterday. In the correction movements that may occur in case of remaining below 1.10 resistance level, 1.0950, 1.0920 and 1.0870 levels are important support levels to follow. If the parity crosses the 1.10 level upwards, 1.1030, 1.1060 and 1.1095 resistance levels can be followed. [mstock id= " 1171"] XAUUSD Due to concerns about how the coronavirus epidemic could harm the global economy and severity, after the ounce gold price rose more than 1% yesterday, investors withdrew profits from the levels reached and finished the day around the previous day's level. In general, the uncertainty of how coronavirus will create a shock on the global economy is growing with concerns over new cases and increasing numbers in over 40 countries infected with this virus outside of China. Increasing the interest rate cut expectations of FED with the effect of the virus also supports the rise. We think that developments related to the virus will continue to be a decisive factor in Gold prices for a while. Technically, it was observed that the Ounce of gold continued to hold in the region of 1635-1625 dollars. 1658, 1666 and 1674 levels are important resistance levels to follow if the Ounce of gold continues its upward movement with increasing demand day by day. Support levels of 1635, 1624 and 1618 can be followed in the short term in the event of a possible downward move. [mstock id= " 1605"] GBPUSD We are watching the weak course in sterling continue ahead of the transition process negotiations, which are expected to begin after the UK leaves the European Union. The dollar's continued strong position is another factor of pressure on GBPUSD. Talks on the post-Brexit transition process are expected to begin on Monday. EU officials are not hopeful about this process. On the other hand, Sterling, which has also been affected by the virus-related developments in the European region, was infected yesterday with the announcement of a case in the UK. These developments indicate that the downward pressure on GBPUSD may continue. Technically speaking, GBP / USD held at 1.2850 during yesterday's decline. 1.2860, 1.2820 and 1.2770 are important support levels that should be followed in case of a continued downward trend in parity with sales that may come as long as 1.2950 remains below the resistance level. 1.2950, 1.2990 and 1.3030 resistance levels should be followed in the upward movement of the trend in the parity with possible purchases. [mstock id= " 1603"] USDJPY Concerns about increased economic growth in the USDJPY combined with the spread of coronavirus to Asian countries are putting pressure on the currencies of countries in this region. In Japan, government moves that have given significant support to the economy in the face of economic downsizing and inflation are also causing the yen to depreciate. Demand for the dollar as a safe currency in response to pressure in Asian currencies based on virus concerns in recent days also led to upward direction in the USDJPY. But in the past week, the Fed's interest rate cut has risen again and the USDJPY has been headed for a downturn due to weakness in the dollar. The direction in the parity may signal a rebound in anticipation that the dollar will be in demand as a safe asset. Technically speaking, whether the USD/JPY will find support at 109.50 today will be monitored. 110,00, 110,60 and 111,20 levels are important resistance levels to follow in case the upward trend continues again as long as it remains above this support level. If possible sales and the trend in parity is downward below 109.50, support levels of 109.00, 108.50 can be followed. [mstock id= " 1527"] CRUDE OIL Oil prices continued to decline for the sixth consecutive day as coronavirus spread to more and more countries outside China, on concerns of a growing economic slowdown and in anticipation of a decline in oil demand, and saw levels of $ 46. Crude oil prices have bucked the long-running upward trend that started 2016 from a low of $ 26 in February. The weak course in oil prices may continue based on virus concerns in the coming period. Whether a compromise can be reached at the OPEC meeting at the beginning of March on a supply cut of 600,000 thousand barrels per day will be another significant development that will be on the markets ' radar in the near term. Technically, whether crude oil can hold its decisive hold at $ 46 today remains to be seen. Sales that may continue as long as the trend is below the resistance level of 48.00 and 45.00, 44.20 and 43.50 are important support levels that should be followed if the downward trend in crude oil continues. With possible purchases, resistance levels of 48.00, 49.40 and 50.00 can be followed in the upward movement of the trend. [mstock id = "1600"] 1tr XAGUSD The virus-induced developments, which are expected to negatively affect the economies of the country on a global scale, also negatively affect the commodities used in the industry. While the demand for gold as a safe asset has been rising in Silver, concerns that silver demand will fall this time, especially in the case of the expected slowdown in the Chinese economy, are putting downward pressure on prices. The fact that China is one of the biggest silver importers suggests that weak pricing may continue for a while longer. Technically, whether Silver can hold at $ 17.50 today remains to be seen. As long as 17.50 remains above the support level, in case of a continued upward trend with purchases, 18.15, 18.40 and 18.60 are important resistance levels to follow. If possible sales and the downward movement of the trend in Silver are below 17.50, support levels of 17.30 and 16.95 should be followed.