CBRT Announced Its Survey of Expectations Report

CBRT announced its Survey of Expectations report. When the May report was announced, inflation and exchange rate forecasts also increased.

CBRT announced the May report of the Expectations Survey, which it regularly conducts with the financial sector and real sector representatives every month. In the survey conducted with 61 sector representatives, it was seen that the sector representatives increased their inflation and exchange rate forecasts in the last month.

Inflation Expectations Increased

The inflation expectation, which was 13.12 percent in the previous survey period, became 13.81 percent in this survey period. While the 12-month ahead CPI expectation was 11.26 percent in the previous survey period, it became 11.81 percent in this survey period.

Interest Expectations Decreased

The interest rate expectation, which was 19.03 percent in the previous survey period, became 19.0 percent in this survey period. The secondary market compound interest rate expectation after 12 months of GDSs, whose maturity is five years or close to five years, increased from 15.52 percent in the previous survey period to 15.63 percent in this survey period.

Exchange Rate Expectations Increased

While the USD/TL exchange rate was expected to be 8.57 TL in the previous survey period, it was 8.71 TL in this survey period. The exchange rate expectation after 12 months was 8.78 TL in the previous survey period, and was recorded as 8.95 in this survey period. The 2021 growth expectation, which was expected to be 4.3 percent in the previous month, was left unchanged at 4.3 percent. GDP growth expectation for 2022 was 4.2 percent in the previous survey period, while it was 4.1 percent in this survey period.