Deutsche Bank Raised its Inflation Forecast for Turkey

Deutsche Bank raised its inflation forecast for Turkey. The bank raised its expectation from 15 percent to 16 percent.

Deutsche Bank announced in a research report that they revised their year-end inflation forecasts from 15 percent to 16 percent after the hikes in electricity and gas prices. Indicating that the weight of natural gas in the inflation basket is 1.69 percent and electricity is 2.71 percent, Deutsche Bank said that the direct effect of these hikes on inflation will be 61 basis points. Emphasizing that the effect of the price hikes made at the beginning of July can be better understood with the inflation data of July, Deutsche Bank stated that they expect the inflation to increase rapidly in July to reach above 18 percent.

USD/TL Estimate Also Updated

Deutsche Bank also increased its year-end forecast for USD/TL exchange rate from 9.00 to 9.50, emphasizing that the recently announced reserve requirement measures signaled a return to unconventional monetary policy measures. Deutsche Bank, which expects the Turkish economy to grow by around 22 percent in the second quarter, noted that they increased their 2021 growth forecasts for Turkey from 5.5 percent to 6.9 percent, with accelerated vaccination efforts and high-frequency data announced in June.