Economists ' Assessments For Inflation Figures

Economists ' Assessments For Inflation Figures

In February, inflation stood at 0.35 percent, while the year-on-year rate was 12.37 percent. Economists assessed the announced inflation figures. Inflation was well below market expectations in February, economists said, predicting a more measured rate cut could come at the Central Bank's Monetary Policy Board (PPK) meeting on March 19. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.35 percent month-on-month and 12.37 percent year-on-year in February, below economists ' expectations of 0.71 percent and 12.77 percent, respectively, in the AA Finance Survey. Economist Haluk Bürümcekci said inflation in February was below market expectations. Inflation compared to last year, albeit limited, in elevation, processed and unprocessed food prices and the price adjustments observed in the group housing is effective Burumcekci, emphasizing that, "in contrast, rate-sensitive groups, and the decline in energy prices was observed. The energy group in February was down 0.63 percent on the reverse of last year. The seasonal fall in clothing prices, with 4.83 percent, was similar to last year's decline and did not affect annual inflation. Thus, the annual CPI increased from 12.15 percent the previous month to 12.37 percent., "he said. Bürümcekci pointed out that food inflation was rising due to both unprocessed and processed food price increases. "The outlook for crude oil and other commodity prices, foreign exchange rate movements and public price/tax adjustments will determine the direction of the risks on inflation, apart from the uncertainty and volatility of food prices in terms of the course of the coming period. While the sharp decline in oil and commodity prices in the short term is reflected positively, the upward pressure on producer prices caused by supply chain disruptions from China and the increase in the exchange rate basket on an annual basis to around 16 percent indicates that some factors affecting inflation continue to strengthen. Therefore, if the depreciation in recent days does not turn into a more pronounced exchange rate attack, it is still possible that annual inflation will gradually decline due to the positive base effect of the same period of last year starting from the second quarter and end the year in the range of 10-11 percent." "INTEREST RATE CUTS MAY CONTINUE" Haluk Bürümcekci said the Central Bank would probably not look at market signals. The expectation of future central bank to halt the decline in inflation expectations in the last survey, rise 100 basis points compared to the previous meeting of the CDS premium, bond yield curve money market swap rates and offshore shift into the range of 12-13 percent rise in a more pronounced depreciation of the TL in case of the continuation of rate cuts suggests that the experiences Burumcekci, these assessments: "On the other hand, the preparations of the central banks of the developed countries, especially the Fed, for new interest rate cuts and the record low levels of bond interest rates, support the loose monetary policy stance of the CBRT. Finally speaking in Bursa last week, Central Bank President Murat Uysal did not signal a change in policy. The bank can, therefore, be expected to reach a conclusion by monitoring developments in global and local risks until the meeting on March 19. The overriding expectation, however, would be that the bank would continue with a 25 or 50 basis point discount." FEBRUARY INFLATION HAS BEEN A POSITIVE SURPRISE Kudret Ayyıldır, Deputy Director of Investment Research at GMC, said February inflation remained below market expectations. Pointing out that the sensitivity of inflation to food products continues with an increase of 2.33 percent in food and soft drinks, Ayyıldır said, "especially with core inflation rising with 9.97 percent compared to the previous month, the probability of staying in single digits is weakening. February inflation has been a positive surprise." Ayyıldır, the central bank's meeting on March 19, further measured interest rate cuts may come, he said, " 25 basis point interest rate cut expectations remain up to date. "