Turkey Inflation Expectation from Moody's Investment Services

The American credit rating agency Moody's raised its 2022 year-end inflation expectation to 52.1 percent, which it had forecast at 35 percent last March.

International credit rating and financial research organization Moody's, in its "Global Marko Outlook" 2022-23 report published today, did not change its 2022 and 2023 growth forecasts for Turkey, but raised the inflation expectation for 2022. Maintaining its 2022 and 2023 GDP growth forecasts for the Turkish economy as 3.5 and 4 percent, Moody's increased its inflation forecast for the end of 2022 from 35 percent to 52.1 percent in its March update. Moody's kept its inflation expectation for the end of 2023 at 30 percent. As a result of the survey conducted by the CBRT, the inflation expectation was recorded as 57.92 percent. In the survey conducted by the CBRT, market participants predicted that inflation would rise to 57.92 percent by the end of the year. In the previous survey period, the year-end expectation was determined as 46.44 percent. The 12-month inflation expectation was 33.28 percent, compared to 28.41 percent in the previous survey. The CPI expectation after 24 months was realized as 17.68 percent and 19.54 percent, respectively, during the same survey periods.