European Central Bank: Recovery Will Be Slow

According to the data of the Professional Estimators Survey by the European Central Bank (ECB), estimates say that the economic recovery will be slow. According to experts' estimates, the Eurozone economy will not shrink much, unlike expected bad scenarios, but the economic recovery will be slow and gradual.

ECB Survey Results

According to the results of the Professional Estimators Survey, 2020 / 2nd quarter announced by the European Central Bank (ECB); The annual harmonized inflation in the Euro Area was observed to be 0.4% this year. While this rate was 1.2% for 2021, it was expressed as 1.4% for 2022. Compared to the survey data made in the first quarter of 2020, it was observed that there was a downward revision of 0.8 points in the second quarter and 0.2 points for the next year. Meanwhile, average long-term inflation forecasts did not change and remained at 1.7 percent. The growth estimates of the gross domestic product growth of the Euro Area by the surveyed experts are as follows by years: 2020 -5.5% 2021- 4.3% 2022 - 1.7% In the second quarter of 2020, a downward revision of 6.6 points was realized in the growth forecast compared to the first quarter. For 2021, this uptrend drew attention to an upward revision of 3.1 percent. The long-term GDP for the environment has not changed and remained at 1.4%.

Unemployment Will Increase

The unemployment rate estimates revised by years are as follows: 2020 - 9.4% 2021 - 8.9% 2022 - 8.4% The long-term unemployment forecast increased by 0.4 points and was revised upwards and announced at 7.7%. According to the European Central Bank's (ECB) statement, normalization will be slow and gradual as the coronavirus outbreak affects the economy seriously. It was also stated that it is not possible to fully return to normal until the third quarter of the year.