Global coffee consumption will exceed production

World coffee consumption in the 2021/22 season will increase and exceed global production, leading to a worldwide reduction in coffee stocks. The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) said in its latest report. In a report entitled Coffee: World Markets and Trade, the ministry predicts an increase in coffee consumption of 1.8 million bags weighing 60 kilograms in the 2021/22 season from 165 million bags in the previous season, while production will fall by 11 million bags to 164.8 million. The report states that coffee stocks will fall to 32 million bags at the end of the season, the lowest level since at least 2017. The main reason for the weaker production was the US Department of State's decline in crops due to the year-on-year cycle of arabica coffee and dry weather. The USDA predicts Brazil's crop cuts in the 2021/22 season to 56.3 million bags from 69.9 million bags in the previous season. At the same time, demand on the Brazilian domestic market will rise to a record 23.7 million bags, as a result of which exports will fall by 9 million bags to 32 million bags. At the same time, coffee stocks in Brazil will be reduced to just 1.5 million bags. As for the world's second largest producer of coffee - Vietnam, the US Department expects to increase its production by 1.8 million to 30.8 million bags in the 2021/22 season, while the world number three Colombia will have a slightly smaller harvest, namely 14.1 million bags, a decrease of 200,000 bags. Coffee production from Central America and Mexico is estimated by the USDA to be reduced by 400,000 to 17.4 million bags, while slightly higher production in Guatemala, Nicaragua and Mexico will offset the decline in Honduras by 700,000 to 5.5 million bags.