Goldman Sachs Predicts A Slowdown In The Growth Of Turkish Economy

Goldman Sachs predicts a slowdown in the growth of Turkish economy. The agency says it has not changed its year-end forecast.

Goldman Sachs was one of the first foreign institutions to publish an assessment after Turkey's growth data exceeded expectations. Goldman Sachs analysts, including Clemens Grafe, stated in a research note that they did not change their year-end forecasts after the first quarter growth that exceeded expectations, but that the year-end forecasts point to a slowdown in growth from the second quarter. Economists said, "The main problem faced by the Turkish economy is the financing of the current account deficit ...", and emphasized that financial inflows to Turkey remain limited and that exports are a function of foreign demand, and that the correction will occur with the slowdown of domestic demand. Goldman Sachs economists, who analyzed the figures on a quarterly basis because the measurement of the base effect makes it difficult to measure the actual economic growth, said that the item that contributed the most to the quarterly growth was imports with a 9.1 percent contraction. In addition, economists stated that increasing stocks and investments on a quarterly basis contributed 1.1 and 0.4 percentage points to growth, respectively. Goldman Sachs economists stated that the growth of 1.7 percent was not much above their expectations of 1.5 percent and that they kept their year-end growth expectations at 4 percent as the growth was supported by the increase in stocks, accordingly, while they said that the growth forecasts for 2021 point to weaker performances on a quarterly basis. According to the data announced by the Turkish Statistical Institute (TURKSTAT), Turkey's economy grew by 7 percent on an annual basis in the first quarter and by 1.7 percent on a quarterly basis.