Institutes have sharply worsened the estimate of German economic growth
German economic institutes have sharply worsened the forecast for the development of the German economy this year, when instead of the original growth estimate of almost 4 percent, they now expect growth of less than 2.5 percent.
This was stated for Reuters by two sources informed about the decision. As they added, the reason is problems in supply chains.
According to sources, four institutes, the RWI from Essen, the Berlin DIW, the
Munich Ifo and the IWH from Halle, expect the German economy to grow by 2.4 percent this year. They originally expected growth to reach 3.7 percent.
The institutions plan to officially publish the joint forecast on Thursday, October 14.
On the other hand, the institutes have improved their growth estimate in 2022, adding the sources mentioned. Initially, they expected growth in gross domestic product (GDP) of 3.9 percent, but the new forecast should set growth next year at 4.8 percent.
At the same time, they set an estimate of growth for 2023, which should reach 1.9 percent.
German economic institutes will thus be other important institutions this week, which will worsen the forecast of Germany's economic development in 2021. The International Monetary Fund did so on Tuesday. It worsened the growth estimate of the German economy this year to 3.1 percent from the July forecast at 3.6 percent.
The German government will also publish a new estimate by the end of October. So far, it expects the German economy to grow by 3.5 percent this year and 3.6 percent next year.
In 2020, Germany's GDP fell by 4.6 percent due to the new
coronavirus pandemic.