Market Participants Raised Their Year-End USD Forecast

Market participants raised their year-end USD forecast. CPI, interest and growth expectations were also included in the survey.

The CBRT (Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey) announced that they changed the name of the expectations survey that it conducts every month with representatives of the real sector and financial sector to the “Market Participants Survey” on the grounds that it was misunderstood in the public and the press as "the center's own expectation". In addition to the CPI, interest and growth expectations, the survey also included participants' year-end dollar forecasts. According to the Market Participants Survey with its new name;

CPI Forecast:

While the current year-end consumer inflation (CPI) expectation was 13.81 percent in the previous survey period, it reached 14.46 percent in this survey period. While the 12-month CPI expectation was 11.81 percent in the previous survey period, it reached 12.12 percent in this survey period.

Interest Forecast:

The current month-end overnight interest rate expectation in the BIST Repo and Reverse-Repo Market, the CBRT Weighted Average Cost of Funding current month-end expectation and the CBRT one-week repo auction interest rate current month-end expectation is 19.0 percent, as in the previous survey period.

Exchange Rate Forecast:

While the current year-end exchange rate expectation was 8.71 TL in the previous survey period, it was 8.95 TL in this survey period. While the expectation of exchange rate after 12 months was 8.95 TL in the previous survey period, it increased to 9.23 in this survey period.

Growth Forecast:

While the GDP growth expectation for 2021 was 4.3 percent in the previous survey period, it increased to 4.9 percent in this survey period. While the GDP growth expectation for 2022 was 4.1 percent in the previous survey period, it reached 4.0 percent in this survey period.