Swiss Bank UBS Announced its 2021 USD/TL Forecast

Swiss Bank UBS Announced its 2021 USD/TL Forecast Swiss bank UBS announced its 2021 USD/TL forecast. UBS predicts that the dollar/TL exchange rate will decline to 7.0 at the end of the first quarter of the year. Switzerland-based UBS evaluated the performance of the Turkish Lira in its note published on January 5. The bank predicted that the dollar/TL exchange rate will rise again after falling to 7.0 in 2021. With the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey’s (CBRT) monetary policy tightening and the weak dollar, it was noted that the determination to fight against inflation and global dynamics could continue to support the Turkish Lira. Pointing out that the Turkish Lira closed the year with a 20 percent decline against the US dollar, UBS underlined that the changes in the economic management in November formed the basis of the improvement in macro policy and announced that it expects a better performance than the lira in 2021.   Risks Are Not Over On the other hand, pointing out that the risks are not over yet, the bank emphasized that historical data signaled a return to growth-oriented policies in the long term. Stating that the inflation data surprised with an annual rate of 14.6 percent in December, the bank noted that this situation indicates that the tight monetary policy should continue. In general, UBS thinks that the recovery observed in monetary policy in the last few months will continue to support the lira, assuming the CBRT will continue on its new path. The bank's dollar / TL exchange rate estimates for each quarter of the year 2021 stands at 7.10, 7.00, 7.30 and 7.60 levels for the first, second, third and fourth quarters, respectively.     Source: Bloomberg HT