The Indian economy recovered slightly after a slump in two quarters
The Indian economy returned to growth in the third quarter of the current fiscal year after slumps for two consecutive quarters.
According to economists, the recovery should continue in the next period, but problems may be caused by a renewed increase in the number of those infected with the new coronavirus.
As reported by the Indian Bureau of Statistics on Friday, India‘s economy grew by 0.4% year on year in the third quarter of the fiscal year 2020/2021, which means the period from October to the end of December. In the period from July to the end of September, it fell by 7.3% after the revision and by a record 24.4% in the most critical first quarter. Initially, the decline was reported at 7.5% and 23.9%, respectively.
For the whole of 2020/2021, the statistical office estimates a decline in the Indian economy by 8%. This means a worsening of the forecast, as it originally expected a full-year decline of 7.7%. The deterioration in the estimate is mainly due to the first quarter of the fiscal year, ie April to June, when the economy contracted more sharply than originally expected.
From mid-May, the Indian government gradually opened the economy. Later, the situation was improved by the fact that the number of new cases of COVID-19 has been declining since October. In February, however, India, which has a population of about 1.3 billion, again saw a more pronounced rise in the number of people infected. This raises concerns that a second wave, similar to that in Europe, could slow down the recovery.