The market expects inflation to hit a 19-year high

Domestic market actors predicted that inflation would reach a 19-year high in December. Annual inflation expectation for December was recorded as 29.59 percent in the market. If the inflation, which will be announced on 3 January, reaches this level, annual inflation in Turkey will reach its highest level since November 2002. In the survey, the highest expectation for annual inflation was 37.3 percent, while the lowest expectation was 24 percent. According to the survey, monthly inflation is expected to be 8.1 percent. While the highest expectation for monthly inflation was set at 14.6 percent, the lowest expectation was recorded as 3.5 percent.

The 2022 expectation was 22.8 percent.

Expectations for 2022 were also compiled in the survey. As a result, the median estimate for 2022 year-end inflation from 13 institutions was 22.8 percent. The institution that shared the lowest forecast for the end of 2022 predicted an 18 percent level, while the institution that shared the highest expectation predicted a level of 30 percent.

Leading indicators also pointed to a rapid increase.

Annual inflation in Turkey reached 21.31 percent in November, the highest level in three years. Leading indicators for December also pointed out that high levels of inflation were maintained. According to Türk-İş's Hunger and Poverty Survey for December, the minimum amount of food expenditure for a family of four living in Ankara increased by a record 25.75 percent compared to the previous month. The annual rate of food inflation was 54.96 percent. According to Türk-İş's research, in the milk, yoghurt, and cheese groups, there was a high increase in the product range of all brands, especially milk. The one-month increase in milk was calculated to be 35.3%. The monthly additional burden on the family budget due to the price increases arising from this product group was 135 TL.