USD / RUB Analysis
USD / RUB has been trading between 70.19 and 72.31 since the beginning of July, rising to yesterday’s high of 72.69.
Credit Suisse economists are seeing a risk from the US to impose new sanctions on Russia, and expect this risk to remain above $ 70.00 USD with stable oil prices.
“The effect of applying new sanctions on Russia by the US seems to continue. Increasing and ongoing sanctions risks seem to cause investors to be careful and to avoid adding large long positions to the ruble. In this environment, we think that Russian exporters tend to move more slowly than others because they convert dollar revenues into rubles. ”
“Oil prices will be range-trading in the short term. The global demand for oil recovery is met with a significant increase in supply. While OPEC + countries are preparing to increase their cumulative production by 2mn / bbl as of August, US oil production is on the rise as it reached a low level in mid-June. These developments seem to be consistent with the continuing stability of this month’s oil price (in dollars), or at least the low performance of oil against other ‘progressive’ assets such as US stocks. “