Will the CBRT Maintain Its Tightening Policy?

Will the CBRT Maintain Its Tightening Policy? Will the CBRT maintain its tightening policy? Tonguç Erbaş from Investing.com wrote the following. Foreign currency deposits in banks increased by $ 2.9 billion last week to a record $ 258 billion, while demand for foreign currency remains strong. The increase in foreign exchange deposits in banks continued last week. According to the daily data of the BRSA, the total foreign exchange deposits in banks reached $ 258 billion with an increase of $ 2.9 billion in the week ending December 18. 1.4 billion dollars of this increase was realized by real persons. Naci Ağbal, the new head of the CBRT, used the following statements on the issue: “As the Central Bank, as a result of our determined attitude and strong policy stance towards achieving the price stability target, we expect the risk premiums to drop and especially our citizens, who see price stability and decline in inflation, to initiate reverse currency substitution and reverse dollarization.”   What's Happening in Global Markets? The European Union and Britain agreed on a draft text for a post-Brexit trade agreement. After the announcement, the decline in UK 10-Year bonds accelerated, and the FTSE 100 Index rose 0.6 percent. The parties missed this date, although the European Parliament called for the conclusion of the agreement in the post-Brexit trade negotiations in terms of approval processes until December 20. While the talks were continuing as of Monday, December 21, these talks had problems especially regarding fishing. The British Prime Minister Johnson's new fishing plan and solution proposal had not been accepted by countries such as France and Denmark. On the other hand, France, which closed its doors to England as a precaution against the mutation of the coronavirus, reopened its borders under some conditions. French Prime Minister Jean Castex reported that European Union citizens who test negative for Covid-19 can travel from England. In addition, sea and rail transportation between the two countries was reopened. Due to travel restrictions, 3,000 tours were stuck on highways and food supply concerns arose in the country.   What Happened in the USA? Pfizer and BioNTech announced that they will provide an additional 100 million doses of Covid-19 vaccine to the USA. The US government will pay $ 1.95 billion to Pfizer and BioNTech for an additional 100 million doses. With this development, the total number of the "BNT162b1" vaccine to be purchased by the USA from Pfizer and BioNTech doubled to 200 million doses. The companies aim to deliver the entire stated total number of vaccines by July 31. In addition, applications for unemployment benefits fell for the first time in 3 weeks in the US. Weekly unemployment benefit applications in the country fell by 89 thousand to 803 thousand. The median estimate of the economists was that the applications were 880 thousand. Ongoing applications dropped from 5.5 million to 5.33 million in the week ending December 12.   USD / TRY Before the last CBRT meeting of the year to be held today, eyes were turned to US President Donald Trump's message that he would not sign the $ 900 billion financial stimulus package and the exchange rate continued its light-seller movement. From a technical point of view, it was stated that the exchange rate remained decisive at the 7.64. With possible purchases, if the trend in the currency moves upwards, the 7.67, 7.70 and 7.73 levels will be followed as important resistance levels. If the exchange rate moves down with possible sales, the levels of 7.62, 7.60 and 7.57 can be followed as support.   EUR / TRY Weak macroeconomic data continued in the domestic and Eurozone last Wednesday. Technically speaking, it was stated that the cross remains decisive at the 9.32. It was noted that as long as 9.30 is above the support level, if the upward movement continues, the levels of 9.35, 9.38 and 9.41 are important resistance levels that should be followed. It was said that if possible sales come in and the cross trend is down, the support levels of 9.30, 9.27 and 9.24 can be followed.   EUR / USD Due to the increased coronavirus cases, US consumer spending fell 0.4 percent in November after a 0.3 percent increase in October, while the University of Michigan consumer confidence index reached 80.7 in December. It was observed that the parity continued its limited upward movement before the Christmas holiday. Technically speaking, the pair remained decisive at 1.2200. It is stated that if 1.2180 continues to stay above the support level, 1.2220, 1.2240 and 1.2270 levels can be followed as important resistance levels. If the pair moves downwards, levels of 1.2180, 1.2160 and 1.2140 can be viewed as support levels.   Gold / USD Last Tuesday, the coronavirus mutation and the stimulus package agreed in the US limited the decreases in gold. However, Trump's message that he will not sign the $ 900 billion financial stimulus package caused reaction purchases. It accelerated the upward movements under the weak outlook of the dollar before the Christmas holiday. Technically speaking, ounce gold remained determined at $ 1,875. It was stated that the levels of 1870, 1862 and 1854 were important points of resistance if the demand fell and ounce gold continued its downward movement. It was said that in a possible upward move, the resistance levels of 1880, 1889 and 1900 could be followed in the short term.   GBP / USD While weak economic data flow was seen in the UK, which came to the fore with the coronavirus mutation, the positive point reached in the Brexit negotiations enabled the pair to find support. Technically speaking, it was stated that the GBP/USD pair remained decisive at 1.3540. If the upward trend in the pair continues with possible purchases if it remains above 1.35 support levels of 1.3590, 1.3630 and 1.3670 resistance levels can be followed. In case of possible sales, if the trend in the pair is down, support levels of 1.3500, 1.3460 and 1.3420 can be followed.   USD / JPY Yesterday, while monetary policy minutes were followed in Japan, the pair followed a downward trend thanks to the weakness of the dollar and the weak risk appetite before the Christmas holiday supported the demand for the Yen. Technically speaking, it was stated that the USD/JPY parity remained decisive at 103.40. If it remains above the support level of 103.20, if the upward trend continues, the resistance levels 103.60, 103.80 and 104.10 can be followed, respectively. If the trend in the parity is downward with possible sales, support levels of 103.20, 103.00 and 102.80 can be followed.   Brent Oil Brent oil followed a sales run last Tuesday amid concerns that news of the coronavirus mutation would slow the global recovery. EIA Crude Oil Inventories fell 0.6 million for the week ending December 18. With this development, the expectations for oil demand turned positive, which brought along the continuation of the upward movements in brent oil. Technically speaking, brent oil was stated to remain decisive at $ 51.50. If the upward trend in oil continues with possible purchases, if it remains above the 50.20 support level, the resistance levels of 52.60, 53.60 and 54.50 can be followed. If the trend is downward with possible sales, it can be viewed as support levels 50.20, 49.20 and 48.00.   Gram Gold / TRY The flattened fluctuations in the currency on Tuesday, as well as signs of a recovery in the US dollar, squeezed demand for gold, bringing sales to the gram gold. The response purchases around the ounce of gold the other day supported the uptrend in gold. Following this, the downward stance in the exchange rate before the last MPC meeting of the year was a factor limiting the rise. From a technical point of view, it is stated that gram gold continues to be decisive at the 461 level. If it remains above 459 the support level, if the upward movement continues, 463, 465 and 468 levels can be followed as resistance. If the trend in gram gold goes down with possible sales, support levels of 459, 457 and 455 can be followed.       Source: Investing.com