Commerzbank Announces Its USD/TL Forecast

Commerzbank announced its USD/TL forecast. The agency also reported the growth forecast of Turkey for the end of 2021.

While Commerzbank revised its USD/TL forecast for the end of 2021 downwards, it also revised its growth forecast of Turkey for the end of 2021 upwards. The institution reduced its USD/TL forecast for the end of the year from 8.25 TL to 8 TL. In addition, Commerzbank predicts that the dollar exchange rate will complete the first half of 2021 between 7-7.25 levels. Stating that global markets reward transparency, Commerzbank Emerging Markets Senior Economist Tatha Ghose stated that their main scenario in the medium term is that after inflation decreases slightly, interest rates will return to around 15 percent. Ghose, who published a research note on the subject, said, "After the interest rates are lowered, the USD/TL will gradually increase and reach the level of 8.00 at the end of 2021." He stated that they updated their 2021 growth forecast for Turkey from 5.8 percent to 6.5. Estimating that the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) will keep the interest rates constant at around 17 percent for now, following inflation, Ghose used the following statements: "The markets assume that if inflation increases, Naci Agbal will raise interest rates regardless of what President Erdogan says." Commerzbank expects inflation to be 13.4 at the end of 2021, while interest rates will remain at 15 percent at the end of the year. The bank expects a 6.5 percent growth rate from Turkey by the end of 2021.       This article has contributions of Bloomberg HT.