Global trade in goods is already above pre-pandemic levels

The recovery of global economic activity has supported trade in goods, which have already peaked before the new coronavirus pandemic. It was announced on Monday by the World Trade Organization (WTO) in updating its forecasts for 2021 and 2022. In a statement by the Global Trade Organization, "The WTO now predicts an increase in global trade in goods of 10.8 percent in 2021 instead of the 8 percent it forecast in March and then 4.7 percent in 2022, more than the previously expected 4 percent," it said. The significant year-on-year growth rate of trade in goods in 2021 is mainly due to its collapse in last year 2020, when trade bottomed out in the second quarter. However, its growth is expected to gradually moderate as trade in goods returns to the long-term trend that preceded the outbreak of the COVID-19 crisis. Supply-side problems, such as semiconductor shortages and congestion in ports, may further increase tensions in supply chains, but are unlikely to have a major impact on global aggregates, WTO experts said. They added that the biggest risks of a possible decline in trade are the pandemic itself. "Trade has been a vital tool in the fight against the pandemic, and this strong growth underscores the importance of trade in supporting the recovery of the global economy," said WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala. "But unfair access to vaccines is exacerbating economic disparities between regions. "The longer this inequality in vaccines persists, the greater the chance that even more dangerous variants of the new coronavirus will emerge, slowing down economic and health progress to date," she said. While regions with access to vaccines and sufficient fiscal space are recovering strongly, the poorer regions, which have the majority of the population unvaccinated, are lagging behind, according to the WTO chief. Okonjo-Iweala said the 12th WTO Ministerial Conference would take place in Geneva from 30 November to 3 December 2021, and one of its main goals was to push the long-blocked negotiations on fisheries subsidies "across the finish line". The former Nigerian Minister of Finance and Foreign Affairs began her four-year term as WTO leader in March. However, it was rejected as false reports, threatening to resign if no progress had been made in the WTO negotiations for a long time.