'Infected' Fall in Chinese Growth

Economists evaluating the impact of corona virus outbreak on Chinese economy lowered growth estimates The corona virus outbreak and China's efforts to prevent the spread of the virus mean that the economy will grow slower than first thought in this quarter, according to economists. Goldman Sachs Group Inc., UBS Group AG and Macquarie Group Ltd. It is among the institutions that have reduced growth expectations for both the first quarter and the whole year. Jian Chang from Barclays Bank Plc. Predicts that 2.2% points will be removed from the first quarter growth in the worst scenario. Jian said in his January 22 assessment that the economic impact of the outbreak will be temporary and limited to some sectors. The institution estimates of the effect of the virus outbreak on the Chinese economy are as follows: Oxford Economics reduced its first growth expectation from 6% to “more than 2 points” in its report dated February 3. It dropped the 2020 growth expectation from 6% to 5.4%. Oxford Economics expects its impact on the economy to be short-lived but strong. Macquarie pulled its first quarter expectation from 5.8% to 4% in its February 3 report. Reduced 2020 expectations from 5.9% to 5.6%. According to the agency, the situation will "get worse before it gets better." According to the UBS report dated February 3, the institution, which pulled its first quarter expectation from 5.9% to 3.8%, decreased the 2020 expectation from 6% to 5.4%. The bank said its forecast includes downside risk. According to the 31 January report of Bloomberg Economics, the institution's first quarter expectation decreased from 5.9% to 4.5%. The expectation for 2020 has increased from 5.9% to 5.7%. The agency made a note that the effect would be greater if the epidemic dropped into the second quarter. The Standard Chartered January 31 report dropped its first quarter expectation from 6% to 4.5%. 2020 expectation decreased from 6.1% to 5.8%. The institution's note stated that the infection was under control earlier than SARS. In Goldman Sachs's 31st January report, the agency pulled its first quarter expectation from 5.6% to 4%. Reduced 2020 expectation from 5.9% to 5.5%. The bank expects debt-intensive incentives in China. According to Citi's January 29 report, the bank's first quarter expectations fell from 5.9% to 4.8%. Expectations for 2020 dropped from 5.8% to 5.5%. It was stated in the bank's note that policy intervention is critical. Nomura's growth expectation for the first quarter on January 29 was revised from 5.8% to "Significantly lower than 6% in the fourth quarter." The old expectation of the institution for 2020 is 5.7%. It has new expectations. However, according to his note, he expects the corona virus outbreak to be more effective than SARS.