JPMorgan Announced The Interest Rate Expected From CBRT

JPMorgan announced the interest rate expected from CBRT. The institution thinks that the rate cut in 2021 may come in the third quarter.

JPMorgan released an analysis after the February meeting of the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT). In the analysis published by the institution, it was stated that the rate cut in 2021 may come in the third quarter. While the President of the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) Naci Ağbal stated in his previous speeches that it does not seem possible to put interest rate cuts on the agenda for a long time, JPMorgan predicted that the interest rate cut could be realized in the third quarter of the year in its last analysis. In the note prepared by JPMorgan Economist Yarkın Cebeci, it was pointed out that the real interest rate foreseen in Turkey is around 600 base points and the real interest rate is 200 base points in the current situation, and the expectation is that these levels will continue throughout the year. The note in question contained the following statements: “If inflation continues to remain within the forecast path announced by the CBRT in its quarterly inflation report, as we foresee in our basic scenario, we do not expect the Central Bank to raise interest rates further.” In the said note, it was stated that cautious and orthodox policies and communication with the markets increased policy credibility, as reflected by the improvement in inflation expectations and ongoing portfolio flows. In addition, it was stated that surprises could support this trend, and it was predicted that this process will gain momentum with the effects of inflation and external balance on these policies.     Source: Bloomberg HT