Markets Focused on the CBRT's Interest Rate Decision

Markets focused on the CBRT's interest rate decision. The PPC meeting will be held on Thursday, August 12.

While domestic markets focus on the interest rate decision of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT), foreign institutions share their analyzes from different perspectives. Credit Suisse analysts, in their USD/TL analysis based on the CBRT's interest rate decision, pointed out that a decrease in the exchange rate towards 8.30 levels is unlikely in the short term. Analysts say that the USD/TL exchange rate may fall to the level of 8.45-8.50 in the coming days, but if the CBRT cuts the policy rate in the August meeting or signals in the markets that an interest rate cut is expected in September, the exchange rate will reach its all-time high in June. Analysts estimated it could go up to 8.80. Credit Suisse analysts did not change their estimates of 9.10 in USD/TL for the end of the third quarter. However, analysts emphasized that a reactive approach would be more accurate than taking a long position in USD/TL at current levels due to high carry costs and recent movements. Deutsche Bank, after the increase in inflation in July, postponed the date of the CBRT's interest rate cut expectation and downsized its rate cut forecast. Deutsche Bank postponed the CBRT's first rate cut expectation from October to November, while lowering its 200 basis point cut forecast to 100 basis points until the end of the year. Deutsche predicted that the CBRT would cut interest rates by 50 basis points twice in November and December.