OPEC Has Worsened Its Estimate Of Global Oil Demand For This Year And Next

OPEC Has Worsened Its Estimate Of Global Oil Demand For This Year And Next

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has worsened its estimate of global oil demand for this year and next. She cited weaker-than-expected economic prospects and an increase in the number of new coronavirus infections in the world as a reason.

Three hundred million barrels less per day

In the latest forecast, OPEC said that in 2020 it expects a year-on-year decline in demand of 9.8 million barrels per day (1 barrel = 159 liters). Compared to the forecast a month ago, this means a deterioration of 300 million barrels per day, when in mid-October he expected a decrease in global demand by 9.5 million barrels / day. As for next year, OPEC recently estimates that demand for oil will increase by 6.2 million barrels per day. This also means a downward revision of the October forecast.

Consequences of the second wave of the pandemic

In October, the organization announced that in 2021, global demand for oil should increase by 6.5 million barrels per day. Since July, OPEC has been steadily worsening its estimate for next year's demand, stating in July that demand would increase by 7 million barrels / day. According to OPEC, the revision of the oil demand forecast is due to a deterioration in the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) forecast of economic development, as many countries have to introduce new quarantine measures for the second wave of the new coronavirus pandemic. This will be reflected in the development of industry and transport next year. The markets are now awaiting a meeting of OPEC countries with other key producers, led by Russia, with whom they form the OPEC + group. The meeting will take place on 30 November and 1 December, at which they should discuss the way forward in the area of ​​production quotas.