Temperatures are falling and Europe does not have enough gas

Temperatures in Europe are falling. And cooling is putting pressure on the already scarce energy supplies on the continent this winter. According to current forecasts, in some parts of Italy, the temperature for next week should be up to 2 degrees lower than normal for this time of year. They also expect colder weather than usual in southern France, Spain and Germany. Centrica, the UK's main energy supplier, has warned its 9 million customers to prepare for cooling, which can take up to six weeks. Cooling is a particularly sensitive issue for people in Britain, where gas prices have been rising for the second week after reaching a record in October. The additional gas supplies that Russia has promised Europe are so far only "negligible" and supplies from Norway have been reduced due to maintenance. "This will test energy supplies across Europe," said Tyler Roys, chief European forecaster at AccuWeather. Gas reference prices are still almost four times higher than normal this time of year, leading to a sharp rise in electricity prices and emission permits in Europe. For the whole of this week, the reference European futures contract for the Amsterdam Stock Exchange rose by 1.4% after jumping by 14% last week. Colder temperatures in the south coincide with stormy weather over the Mediterranean with the threat of floods, Roys said. This will bring large fluctuations in wind energy production, which is likely to lead to even higher price volatility. November temperatures could generally return to normal, but according to Accuweather, they may be colder than the average for the past four years. This could also affect the level of gas storage. Demand for gas has increased as economies recover from the new coronavirus pandemic. The arrival of cold weather in Europe follows the frosts and snow in China, which is the largest consumer of energy in the world. Higher demand for heating may intensify the already tough fight for liquefied natural gas (LNG) supplies, while US LNG prices are becoming increasingly attractive in Asia. At the same time, the development of the La Niña phenomenon in the Pacific means possible lower temperatures in Northeast Asia during the winter months. Like El Niño, La Niña is associated with changes in weather patterns around the world.