The Polish Economy Is Expected To Decline Slightly This Year Than Originally Expected

The Polish Economy Is Expected To Decline Slightly This Year Than Originally Expected

The Polish economy is expected to decline slightly this year than originally expected. The Polish central bank published a new estimate. However, in the case of the 4th quarter, as well as in 2021, the forecast worsened.

Closure of operations

Poland's economy began to recover rapidly after the release of quarantine measures in May, but the onset of the second wave of the pandemic again led to the closure of many shops, bars and restaurants. According to the central bank, this was reflected in the adjustment of its estimate of economic development in the fourth quarter. "Due to growing uncertainty and negative sentiment due to the resumption of the pandemic, private consumption in the fourth quarter of this year may be lower than indicated by the July estimate," the central bank said.

The central bank counts on a decline

Most recently, therefore, it expects the economy to decline by 6.5% in the fourth quarter, while in July it expected a decline of 5.3%. On the contrary, it adjusted the data for the second quarter upwards, which will have a positive effect on the development of the economy for the whole of 2020. According to the central bank, the Polish economy is expected to decline by 3.5% this year, while in July 5.4%. Next year, the economy should grow, but the bank has revised the growth rate downwards. Originally, it expected the economy to grow by 4.9% in 2021, with a new forecast of 3.1%.